Soccer Modelling: Don't get caught offside in a football market
Being able to predict the outcome of a football match, and knowing you are going to be right, would certainly lower the stress and anxiety levels of a football fan.
It would also eliminate much of the emotional joy you get from being a football fan, with the twists and turns of a game part of the appeal of attending a match.
But, when it comes to betting, taking out the emotion and eliminating the potential for risk is exactly what is required.
That is why using soccer modelling can put you in a strong position to make a profit from trading on football.
Different betting apps will likely have different means of how they calculate the probability of certain outcomes in a game, such as who will win, how many goals will there be?
There is something called the Poisson Distribution. This is a system whereby mean averages are translated into a probability for variable outcomes. So it would use the average number of goals a team has scored, for instance, to work out the percentage likelihood of that team scoring one, two, three goals etc in the upcoming match.
Historical data is also used to determine the probability of an event happening in a match. Using statistics from past seasons, a seemingly limitless number of factors in a football match can be looked at.
You can look at how many times the home team has gone on to win, if the away team has scored first, for example, or what the likely outcome would be if it is a draw at half-time.
What a betting app will do for you is to give a price prediction on what these events should be, if this is the type of market you want to trade on.
That is one of the keys as well to remember when it comes to using soccer modelling. You are looking to trade on a match, rather than bet. The romantic bet on your team to win is one thing, but soccer modelling can put you in a position to win whatever the outcome of the match.
You can do a lot of the work on your football trading before kick-off as well, with there no need to rely just on the in-play markets.
Betting apps will allow you to set certain positions on a market or an event. You can set limits for a profit or loss, which would at least allow for those unpredictable situations of a team’s leading scorer being stretchered off with an injury.
You can instruct the app to seek a profit from certain results, or accept a set losing position for a specific scoreline.
It is case of using the information available to find a market which works for you in the long term.
There is clearly no guarantee of winning every time, especially given the nature of football, but using a soccer modelling app greatly increases your probability of being right, and so consequently, your chances of making a profit.
