Trading : Making a profit in football markets
Peter Webb explains
Watching the transfer market can provide some good trading opportunities, before the season has even begun as Peter Webb from Bet Angel explains...
One of the many things I do in football markets is watch the promotion and relegation markets. Promotion or title winning markets can be a little dull, but relegation markets can be great fun.
Before the start of the new season I'm always watching the transfer markets. I've often commented on my blog about how to assess teams' chances for the season. I'll write about that here in more depth here at some point.
But essentially what I'm watching for is for big signings in or out of a club. The general rule of thumb you can use is the that big signings improve the clubs chance of winning a title or escaping relegation, while an exodus will increase the chances of a club visiting the bottom of the league.
It's all relative though and just because your club has signed the next superstar, it won't count for much if your nearest competitors have also been getting the cheque book out. The top leagues in Europe have really become a battle of the bank account rather than the one played out on the field.
Some seasons the transfer shenanigans are easier to spot than others. Liverpool losing Suarez inevitably would dent their ambitions for next year, so that put them up as a lay for the title this season.
But the £75m received in return would have given them plenty of room to improve their side. Curiously they choose to do so by raiding the Southampton team, so that inevitably made the Saints a back for relegation at that point.
I don't think many could have predicted just how severe the exodus from Southampton would have been and, a bit like a dancefloor at a nightclub, there comes a point at which it becomes harder to attract newcomers if everybody is leaving the scene, although Ronald Koeman has said more will follow Chelsea loanee Ryan Bertrand into the club.
Southampton - who funnily enough face Liverpool on the opening day - have come in from a 12.5 chance of relegation from the Premier League at the end of last season to as low as 5.20.
But they now have a bulging war chest of almost £100m to rebuild. Of course the question is will they use it? If they do they the odds should go back out again, so laying on good transfer news is an option. If not, maybe they can pile that cash up in front of the goal!
Liverpool's quest to build on last years fantastic season is being priced out of the equation at this stage. They have drifted from 3.50 to 13.50 in the Premier League winner market, in the post-Suarez era.
Are they a one man team? If they pull in some decent results early in the season then expect their price to come in a fair bit and you can back to lay for a profit.
Trading these markets can be good fun and over the course of a season you can build up some decent positions. Just bear in mind you will only get paid out on the actual result occurring, so you could have to wait to till May for a payout.
But that's the beauty of trading, you can trade in and out many times over the season allowing you to free up your stake while leaving the profit in the market ready to payout at a later date. This way May could turn into your best month of the year.
The full version of this article appears on betting.betfair.com.
